A new article co-authored by Assistant Professor of Economics Katie Bollman reveals how income loss due to cold shocks affecting agricultural production drives increases in intimate partner violence
Puno, Peru | Credit: Diego Delso
By Colin Bowyer, Communications Manager - January 7, 2025
Violence against women, particularly Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), affects one in three women worldwide. IPV victims suffer long-term physical and mental health problems, as well as losses in productivity and income. In emerging economies, IPV costs an estimated one and a half percent to four percent of GDP. Relatedly, rising global temperatures due to climate change continue to cause intense cold waves that endanger vulnerable populations and agricultural production, especially in highland areas of low- and middle-income countries.
In a new first-of-its-kind study, researchers from Oregon State University, Colorado State University, Wake Forest University, and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization examine the effect of cold exposure on IPV. Forthcoming in the Journal of Development Economics, the study focused on the Peruvian Highlands, where IPV is common and where extreme cold events have become more frequent, affecting millions of residents.
When comparing socioeconomic survey data with weather trends from 2010-2018, the results show that cold shocks, measured as cumulative degree hours below harmful temperature thresholds, raise the likelihood of IPV. Specifically, 10 degree hours below -9°C increase the probability of domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. During the agricultural growing season, the effect is intensified, jumping to 1.6 percentage points.
“Cold influences IPV through two main channels,” explained Katie Bollman, an economist in the School of Public Policy at Oregon State. “First, extreme cold reduces income from agriculture. Second, extreme cold may limit time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners.”
The study identifies income loss as the primary driver of cold-induced increases in IPV, accounting for roughly three-quarters of the total effect of cold shocks on IPV. While reduced mobility during cold spells also may play a role, the economic impact of cold damage on agriculture is far more significant. Importantly, the research suggests that social assistance programs can mitigate these effects, as regions with higher baseline coverage of government support show no significant increase in IPV during cold events.
Prior research suggests income loss can increase IPV through stress, anxiety, and impulsive decision-making. Anecdotal evidence from higher call volume to assault hotlines during severe cold spells supports research exploring the causation between weather-induced “cabin fever” and domestic violence cases. This is the first study to quantify the relationship between cold exposure and IPV, by looking at how cold shocks affect income and social well-being.
In a context in which climate change increases extreme weather events, the authors show that exposure to cold increases IPV victimization, in which loss of income is more influential than time spent inside. Furthermore, households dependent on agriculture are particularly vulnerable to the effects of cold shocks during their crop growing season.
“Our findings highlight an overlooked consequence of climate variability,” said Bollman. “Extreme cold doesn’t just harm crops, it disrupts household income and increases stress, which can lead to violence.”